Chart Analysis Forum: Financial Market's Year-End Analyses Forum

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Location: Philippine Stock Exchange Centre, Tektite Trading Floor
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When: Tuesday / November 11, 2008 / 7:00PM to 9:30PM
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Chart Analysis Forum:

Financial Market's Year-End Analyses Forum

PSE Outlook by the PSE Marketing Department
Fundamental View by Sandy Gilles
Technical View and InterMarket Analyses by Fitz Aclan and Danny Go

Guest from the Banking Industry (TBA)

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Up, up! But is it on its way to "away?"

And the bargain hunting continues! Volume today is up about 60% compared to yesterday. After another positive close in US markets, the PSEi has given us this:













It looks like a rally, smells like a rally, and tastes like a rally. But the true test is at the 3026 level. Please, not too fast. We don't want a spike but a steady return to green land.

Biggest news from last trading is JPMorgan's upbid (JPM, Fortune 500) to the Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500) purchase from $2 to $10 per share. And again, this is no problem for JPM after its earnings from VISA's IPO. Anyway, the upbid is meant to calm BSC's shareholders who feel $2 dollars per share does not reflect the true value of Bear Stearns. Needless to say, but still worth noting for the figure it has produced, BSC closed 88.76% up at $11.25 from a more than 100% high at $13.85.

	NASDAQ	2326.75	68.64	3.04%
	DJIA	12548.64	187.32	1.52%
	S&P 500	1349.88	20.37	1.53%

Back to the local front:

PSE COMPOSITE AND SECTORAL INDICES from www.pse.org.ph
VALUE		CHANGE	% CHG
PSEi	2,892.20	24.70	0.8614
All Shares	1,773.17	14.00	0.7958
Financials	694.99	10.40	1.5192
Industrial	3,576.71	3.61	0.1008
Holding Firms	1,551.37	8.73	0.5659
Property	1,089.74	26.20	2.4635
Services	1,600.02	8.28	0.5202
Mining & Oil	6,539.98	85.85	1.2957

MARKET ACTIVITY
Trades	5738
Volume	1,142,476,910
Value (in thousands)	3,251,015
Advances	60
Declines	30
Unchanged	58

Worth noting is the Mining and Oil average's 5th day at closing low despite All Shares in a 3 day rally.

The fact that most positions closed at highs is an indicator of quick sells, as well. Probably just day trades in the market today as investors are still waiting for stronger confirmation from foreign markets. Oh how dependent are we!

Stock to watch while eating popcorn: FLI!













Today's low is higher that yesterday's low. Why? I don't know. :) It closed at 1.06 which is a price it last hit 13 days ago.

bargain hunting or still holding back?

Filipinos are known to be suckers for bargain deals and discount sales. We fill shopping malls to almost asinine proportions over payday weekends and shop, shop, shop.

So why was the market not full today? Why were bargain hunters not in troves? Well, we're 12 hours ahead of US trading, that's why. At this point we are still waiting for confirmation that the otherwise good week last week in US equities is not just another fluke.

PSE COMPOSITE AND SECTORAL INDICES from www.pse.org.ph VALUE CHANGE % CHG PSEi 2,867.50 49.92 1.7717 All Shares 1,759.17 23.47 1.3522 Financials 684.59 8.06 1.1914 Industrial 3,580.32 62.04 1.7634 Holding Firms 1,542.64 30.89 2.0433 Property 1,063.54 36.25 3.5287 Services 1,591.74 17.12 1.0872 Mining & Oil 6,625.83 202.46 2.965 MARKET ACTIVITY Trades 4344 Volume 738,146,677 Value (in thousands) 2,165,174 Advances 56 Declines 27 Unchanged 48

All eyes on you tonight, Uncle Sam, in another crucial week to world economy!

Hard times?

Trading for both the US and Philippine markets will resume tomorrow.

The PSEi ended last week with modest gains after being down 4 consecutive trading days. Can it continue on with an uptrend following news of lower commodity prices? It has not yet traded after the oil price shed off about 10 dollars. Does this give us something to be hopeful about?













From January 22nd to March 17th, the 11690 line has been tested thrice. Have we seen a bottom to the US market? Are we on our way back? Confident?

Questions. Yes. Those are what we have now.

Oh, and one more interesting thing... JP Morgan made at least $1.36 billion in VISA's IPO. This means, after paying for the Bear Stearns purchase, the financial holding company has still a billion dollars to pocket. Talk about hard times. :)

US Averages shed gains

The US market has shed gains from Tuesdays 420-point rally. It was a higher low, though. Plus, the DJI is still consolidating in the 12850 to 11700 levels. I remain confident, especially because of VISA's first day trade performance - a 28.41% gain as they close at $56.50 per share.

Not exactly the confirmation the Philippine market is looking for, but hey, there's still tonight, right? Right!

And since I've mentioned tonight, here's what to watch out for:

- VISA under the ticket "V" - will they hold gains from first day trade?
- Companies set to report earnings:
Barnes&Noble (BKS)
FedEx (FDX)
3Com (COMS)
Palm (PALM)
- Starbucks (SBUX) - In its annual shareholders meeting yesterday, Chairman, President and CEO Howard Schultz announced that there will be changes in the Starbucks business plan.

Another exciting trading day. That's for sure!