Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Up, up! But is it on its way to "away?"

And the bargain hunting continues! Volume today is up about 60% compared to yesterday. After another positive close in US markets, the PSEi has given us this:













It looks like a rally, smells like a rally, and tastes like a rally. But the true test is at the 3026 level. Please, not too fast. We don't want a spike but a steady return to green land.

Biggest news from last trading is JPMorgan's upbid (JPM, Fortune 500) to the Bear Stearns (BSC, Fortune 500) purchase from $2 to $10 per share. And again, this is no problem for JPM after its earnings from VISA's IPO. Anyway, the upbid is meant to calm BSC's shareholders who feel $2 dollars per share does not reflect the true value of Bear Stearns. Needless to say, but still worth noting for the figure it has produced, BSC closed 88.76% up at $11.25 from a more than 100% high at $13.85.

NASDAQ 2326.75 68.64 3.04%

DJIA 12548.64 187.32 1.52%

S&P 500 1349.88 20.37 1.53%

Back to the local front:

PSE COMPOSITE AND SECTORAL INDICES
from www.pse.org.ph
VALUE CHANGE % CHG
PSEi 2,892.20 24.70 0.8614
All Shares 1,773.17 14.00 0.7958
Financials 694.99 10.40 1.5192
Industrial 3,576.71 3.61 0.1008
Holding Firms 1,551.37 8.73 0.5659
Property 1,089.74 26.20 2.4635
Services 1,600.02 8.28 0.5202
Mining & Oil 6,539.98 85.85 1.2957

MARKET ACTIVITY
Trades 5738
Volume 1,142,476,910
Value (in thousands) 3,251,015
Advances 60
Declines 30
Unchanged 58

Worth noting is the Mining and Oil average's 5th day at closing low despite All Shares in a 3 day rally.

The fact that most positions closed at highs is an indicator of quick sells, as well. Probably just day trades in the market today as investors are still waiting for stronger confirmation from foreign markets. Oh how dependent are we!

Stock to watch while eating popcorn: FLI!













Today's low is higher that yesterday's low. Why? I don't know. :) It closed at 1.06 which is a price it last hit 13 days ago.

Monday, March 24, 2008

bargain hunting or still holding back?

Filipinos are known to be suckers for bargain deals and discount sales. We fill shopping malls to almost asinine proportions over payday weekends and shop, shop, shop.

So why was the market not full today? Why were bargain hunters not in troves? Well, we're 12 hours ahead of US trading, that's why. At this point we are still waiting for confirmation that the otherwise good week last week in US equities is not just another fluke.

PSE COMPOSITE AND SECTORAL INDICES
from www.pse.org.ph
VALUE CHANGE % CHG
PSEi 2,867.50 49.92 1.7717
All Shares 1,759.17 23.47 1.3522
Financials 684.59 8.06 1.1914
Industrial 3,580.32 62.04 1.7634
Holding Firms 1,542.64 30.89 2.0433
Property 1,063.54 36.25 3.5287
Services 1,591.74 17.12 1.0872
Mining & Oil 6,625.83 202.46 2.965

MARKET ACTIVITY
Trades 4344
Volume 738,146,677
Value (in thousands) 2,165,174
Advances 56
Declines 27
Unchanged 48


All eyes on you tonight, Uncle Sam, in another crucial week to world economy!

Sunday, March 23, 2008

Hard times?

Trading for both the US and Philippine markets will resume tomorrow.

The PSEi ended last week with modest gains after being down 4 consecutive trading days. Can it continue on with an uptrend following news of lower commodity prices? It has not yet traded after the oil price shed off about 10 dollars. Does this give us something to be hopeful about?













From January 22nd to March 17th, the 11690 line has been tested thrice. Have we seen a bottom to the US market? Are we on our way back? Confident?

Questions. Yes. Those are what we have now.

Oh, and one more interesting thing... JP Morgan made at least $1.36 billion in VISA's IPO. This means, after paying for the Bear Stearns purchase, the financial holding company has still a billion dollars to pocket. Talk about hard times. :)

Thursday, March 20, 2008

US Averages shed gains













The US market has shed gains from Tuesdays 420-point rally. It was a higher low, though. Plus, the DJI is still consolidating in the 12850 to 11700 levels. I remain confident, especially because of VISA's first day trade performance - a 28.41% gain as they close at $56.50 per share.

Not exactly the confirmation the Philippine market is looking for, but hey, there's still tonight, right? Right!

And since I've mentioned tonight, here's what to watch out for:

- VISA under the ticket "V" - will they hold gains from first day trade?
- Companies set to report earnings:
Barnes&Noble (BKS)
FedEx (FDX)
3Com (COMS)
Palm (PALM)
- Starbucks (SBUX) - In its annual shareholders meeting yesterday, Chairman, President and CEO Howard Schultz announced that there will be changes in the Starbucks business plan.

Another exciting trading day. That's for sure!

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

The worst is over!

Nah, I'm just practicing. :) Poor, old Philippine Stock Exchange needs confirmation. A good day in the US is not enough for a rebound. Yeah, it's either that or the country's premier financial market can't see Confidence even if it stares him in the eye.

Despite a .75% cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve and better than expected earnings reports from two otherwise ailing companies, Lehman Brothers (LEH, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), that fueled a 420-point spike for Dow, plus a record-breaking $17.9B IPO of VISA, the PSEi only posted minimal gains. Better market performance during Wednesday and Thursday trading in the US might give a much needed local boost, but it certainly won't be fooled by another March 11 "could-be."

VALUE CHANGE % CHG
PSEi 2,817.58 40.16 1.4459
All Shares 1,735.70 21.63 1.2619
Financials 676.53 11.56 1.7384
Industrial 3,518.28 6.26 0.1776
Holding Firms 1,511.75 27.61 1.8603
Property 1,027.29 24.14 2.4064
Services 1,574.62 26.50 1.7118
Mining & Oil 6,828.29 46.60 0.6778