Monday, March 17, 2008

Stocks Study (PCOR)

News about Aramco's sale of it's 40% hold of Petron Corp. here.














Will the Price move back into the ascending triangle and eventually break up with a 7-peso and above potential?













Or is it on its way to confirming a right shoulder to a head and shoulders formation?

Watch out! :)

What just happened? (03/17/08)

On Sunday, March 16, the US Federal Reserve cut lending rates to financial institutions
by 3.25% in an effort to ease the credit crisis in America. Yes, they did it on a Sunday. Maybe they are expecting results come Monday trading?

In other news, JP Morgan Chase and Co. has moved to acquire Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. at $2 per share. A week ago, BSC was valued at around $70 per share before it closed at $30 on Friday.

Despite and because of these developments, Asian stocks close low, Asian currencies take a plunge lead by the Korean Won at a 27-month low.




The PSEi has broken down the 2800 psychological support line and closed at a value of 2793.68.











It is now in territories it has not re-visited since November of 2006.










There is no clear bottom at this point unless we follow what the double top pattern tells us. 2146 to 2246? :)

I am hoping for a rally, though. Suffice it to say, I have sold all positions and am now 100 percent liquid.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

What to do while on the sidelines?

I just came from a lunch get together with fellow traders. The other 3 I was with could actually pass off as my mentors as they know a whole lot more than me.
We discussed the week that was in both the local and US market scenes. General sentiment is to stay in the sidelines.




DJI as of 03/14/08
Yesterday's close down 194.65 points from a start-of-week rise of more than 400 points.
The Feds are meeting up Tuesday next week to discuss further measures.








PSEi as of 03/14/08
Looking for excitement?
Wrong place.








But what to do while controlling your urge to buy without clear greens?
- Develop your own Market Feel
- Study Charts
- Understand Fundamentals at work (not necessarily be guided by them)

Thanks to Paul, Bonner, and Amado for the wonderful company.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Dead Cat Bounce? eh?

Well, yeah let's start with definitions.

What is a dead cat bounce? The ever trust(un)worthy wikipedia defines it as a "term used by traders in the finance industry to describe a pattern wherein a moderate rise in the price of a stock follows a spectacular fall"



There's an excellent flash show here.








My source goes on to say that, "A market rise after a sharp fall can only really be seen to be a "dead cat bounce" with the benefit of hindsight. If the stocks starts to fall again in the following days and weeks, then it is a true dead cat bounce. If the market picks up starts to climb again, it was not a bounce but a bottom."

Basically, it is a vindication for shorters and what bulls in the market hope to overcome, i.e. turning the supposed false rise into a recovery from a bottom.

So why not a blog name with a more bullish connotation? Because nothing can beat the cuteness of "bouncing kuting." :)

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"How I got started in the stock market"

It was late 2006 when I began investing in the market. I signed up for an online account at www.philstocks.com.ph which was perfect for my busy schedule at the time. See, I have a day job. At the time, I was looking for a way to make my money grow. Depositing it into a bank account with promises of 1% growth per year minus taxes just did not appeal to me.

Risky? I was prepared to lose all in the stock market than just have it parked in a bank account where money can never see its utmost potential as the previous also promises higher returns despite the risk.

Philstocks offered an introductory course which I attended the day I signed up. It included some understanding of fundamental and technical aspects of the market.

After a year of trading on my own and realizing that there is more to trading than just buying and selling stocks based on instinct, I enrolled myself in a Technical Analysis Seminar from AbsoluteTraders.com. At the time of this writing, I am about to finish the introductory seminar and will be taking the first part of the course's exam come our next meeting in a couple of days.